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Busch Is No. 1, But Not in Momentum

Various Sports Writers

2008-09-12

Kyle Busch has dominated NASCAR this season.

The 23-year-old driver won eight Sprint Cup races and led the points standings during the regular season, giving him a 30-point edge over his nearest competitor entering NASCAR's 10-race Chase for the Championship "playoffs."

But that doesn't necessarily make Busch the title favorite going into Sunday's Chase opener at Loudon, N.H.

After all, Jimmie Johnson has won the past two Sprint Cup titles and picked up a lot of momentum going into this year's stretch run by winning the last two races of the regular season.

Plus, Busch struggled in recent weeks and had no better than the fourth-best regular-season record at the tracks being used in the Chase.

Johnson and teammate Jeff Gordon, meantime, have much stronger records in past Chases and better performances at the Chase tracks.

If history prevails over the events of the regular season, NASCAR's fifth Chase for the Championship and Sprint Cup title should go to either Johnson or four-time champion Gordon, with the third Hendrick Motorsports driver in the Chase, Dale Earnhardt Jr., getting the nod as the long shot.

One observer's view of the Chase:

1. Jimmie Johnson (Chevrolet): If he wins the Chase, he will join Cale Yarborough as the only drivers to win three straight NASCAR titles. Winning the last two races of the regular season reduced his deficit entering the Chase to 40 points against Busch and 10 against Carl Edwards. Won four races in the Chase last year, and his average finish in the playoffs was fifth. Plus, he's hot.

2. Jeff Gordon (Chevrolet): Didn't win a race this season while struggling to adjust to the Car of Tomorrow. Still, his average finish of 7.4 at the Chase tracks this season is the best in the field. And he finished second to Johnson last year with an average finish of 5.1 in Chase races.

3. Carl Edwards (Ford): Like Johnson, came on strong late in the season, and his six wins were only two fewer than Busch. He loves the 1.5-mile "intermediate" length ovals and there are five in the Chase. But he was ninth in last year's Chase and had terrible runs this year at Talladega and Atlanta.

4. Kyle Busch (Toyota): Won eight races and dominated the regular-season points race. But since NASCAR came down hard on Joe Gibbs Racing's Nationwide Series operation, Busch has struggled. Finished fifth in the Chase last year. Three of his 2008 wins were on Chase tracks (Dover, Talladega, Atlanta).

5. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Chevrolet): Let's be honest: NASCAR would love to see Dale Jr. win. Finished fifth for the second time in last year's Chase while running for his late father's team. Average finish on a Chase track this season was 12.8.

6. Denny Hamlin (Toyota): Third in each of the regular season's last three races makes him one of the hottest drivers going into the Chase. But he was 12th in last year's playoffs. His 12.8 average finish at Chase tracks this year not a great improvement over his 18.4 average finish in the 2007 Chase.

7. Greg Biffle (Ford): He didn't win a race this year and didn't make the Chase in 2007. But his average finish at Chase tracks this year was 9.6. And remember, he won six races and finished second in 2005.

8. Tony Stewart (Toyota): As a lame duck with Gibbs, he's not likely to get the attention afforded Busch and Hamlin, which could make the rebel an even bigger threat. He's a two-time series champ. But he blows hot and cold.

9. Jeff Burton (Chevrolet): Hasn't had a top-five finish in 12 races, but averaged a 7.9 finish this year on tracks in the Chase. Finished seventh in both the 2006 and '07 Chases.

10. Matt Kenseth (Ford): His steady if unspectacular run to the title in 2003 led to the creation of the Chase. Besides Johnson, he's the only driver to qualify for all five Chases. This year's average finish of 19.4 on Chase tracks has to be discouraging.

11. Clint Bowyer (Chevrolet): Won the opening race of last year's Chase and finished third in the final standings. But he barely held on to the final spot this year and had an average finish of 15th on Chase tracks.

12. Kevin Harvick (Chevrolet): Struggled to a 10th in last year's Chase and averaged a 17.3 finish this year on Chase tracks. Hasn't won since the 2007 Daytona 500.

Bill Center writes about auto racing for The San Diego Union-Tribune. He can be reached at bill.center@uniontrib.com.

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